Chronology·14 articles·2025 – 2026
Chronological Analysis of Publications on Technology and its Financial Implications
Updated 2026-04-01·Source: MoneyRadar Briefs, Notes, Reports & Videos
The publications cover a period from June 2025 to April 2026, offering a forward-looking analysis of financial markets with a particular focus on the technology sector. Initially, the analysis concentrates on American exceptionalism and the performance of US assets, including technology, despite Donald Trump's return (Source 1). In August 2025, attention shifts to corporate performance and the adaptation of asset allocations, with a strengthening of US and Asian ETFs (Source 2). August also highlights Asia, particularly China, as a growth opportunity, especially in the field of AI (Source 3). The end of 2025 is marked by fears of stagflation, a scenario where growth slows and inflation rises, impacting financial strategy and prompting sectoral reallocations, notably a pivot from an AI theme to more defensive themes (Source 4). October 2025 identifies undervalued markets and sectoral opportunities, including European Tech (Source 5). The outlook for 2026 highlights an unstable world, but NVIDIA's publication reinforces conviction in the technology sector, despite a correction (Source 6). In November 2025, the analysis suggests that many good news items are already priced in, encouraging profit-taking and risk reduction, with a focus on defensive sectors (Source 7). December 2025 highlights the rebound of European indices but warns of the continent's structural fragilities, while recommending a selective approach, including European Tech (Source 8). The end of 2025 sees increased volatility due to AI and crypto bubbles, but gold and bonds play their role as safe havens, while US equities are deemed riskier (Source 9). 2026 begins with renewed confidence in global equity markets, driven by the AI super-cycle and geographical diversification, particularly in Asia (Source 10). "Mega-trends" for 2026 and beyond are identified, including the AI super-cycle, geopolitics and military, reshoring and infrastructure, as well as the low-carbon transition, all offering investment opportunities via ETFs (Source 11). February 2026 notes a return of risk aversion following Trump's actions and Japanese bond tensions, leading to a reduction in exposure to US equities and a strengthening in Defense and emerging market bonds (Source 12). March 2026 analyzes the impact of the war in Iran, which favors commodities and defense, while penalizing Asia and Europe (Source 13). Finally, April 2026 discusses the universe of PEA-eligible ETFs, identifying opportunities in European sovereignty and infrastructure, while highlighting the limits of a 100% PEA strategy (Source 14). AI is a recurring theme, perceived as a driver of growth and productivity throughout this period.
Records in 2026: The AI Super Cycle and Geographical Diversification as Drivers
2026 starts strong, driven by the AI super cycle and geographical diversification, particularly in Asia, despite latent geopolitical risk.
Mega Trends 2026 and Beyond: AI, Geopolitics, Sovereignty, and Transition
Mega-trends such as AI, geopolitics, European sovereignty, and the low-carbon transition offer strategic investment opportunities for the coming years.
Global Disorder: Return of Risk Aversion and Strategic Reallocations
The 'Sell America' gains momentum in the face of Trump's actions and Japanese tensions, leading to reallocations towards Defense and emerging market bonds.
War in Iran: Impact on Markets and Strategies in the Face of Stagflation
The conflict in Iran impacts markets, favoring commodities and defense, and reinforces stagflation fears, requiring reallocations towards defensive assets.
PEA Universe: Building an Optimized Portfolio Despite Constraints
Although a 100% PEA portfolio is not optimal, it is possible to build a diversified allocation by integrating ETFs on European sovereignty and infrastructure.
Methodology
Analysis of the universe of PEA-eligible ETFs, identification of opportunities and constraints, and proposal of sample portfolios.
Key findings
- Uncertain market context, but portfolios remain resilient; awaiting better visibility to recalibrate allocation.
- A 100% PEA portfolio has limitations (no gold, no safe bonds, limited global strategies).
- Recommended strategy: couple PEA (80% equities) with CTO (20% gold).
- Good discoveries within the PEA: European Sovereignty, European Infrastructure.
Investor implications
Investors using a PEA must be aware of its limitations and consider coupling it with a CTO for optimal diversification, while exploiting available European opportunities.
American Exceptionalism: US Markets Will Continue to Outperform
The United States maintains a structural lead over Europe, justifying an overweighting of American indices despite Donald Trump's return.
Global Trade Agreements and US Slowdown: Adapting Asset Allocation
Trump's trade agreements support the global cycle, but the US economy is slowing gently, justifying a strengthened allocation to US and Asia ETFs.
Asia, End-of-Year Good Surprise: Focus on China and AI
Asia, driven by China and the AI theme, presents an outperformance opportunity by year-end and in the long term.
Stagflation: How to Adopt the Right Financial Reflexes in the Face of a Growing Threat
Given the risk of stagflation, it is advisable to pivot from an AI theme to defensive themes and adjust asset allocation.
Undervalued Markets and Investment Opportunities for 2026
Despite a market at its peak, opportunities exist in undervalued sectors and geographical areas, such as European Tech and India.
2026 Outlook: Navigating an Unstable World with Diversification and Selectivity
Despite a complex environment, diversification and selectivity, particularly in AI and defense, are key to performing in 2026.
Zen in the Face of Markets: Tactical Adjustment Towards Defensive Assets
With good news already priced in, the balance of risks leans downwards, justifying a tactical adjustment towards more defensive assets.
Europe: Dead Cat Bounce? Selective Analysis of Opportunities
Despite favorable momentum, Europe's structural fragilities persist; a selective approach is necessary, favoring segments like European Tech.
AI and Crypto Bubble: The Role of Safe-Haven Assets and the Fed's Impact
Markets shook in November, but the post-Fed rebound limited the damage; US equities are deemed riskier, favoring gold and bonds.