Chronology·9 articles·2025 – 2026
Chronological Analysis of Recession, Stagflation, and Global Economic Cycles
Updated 2026-04-01·Source: MoneyRadar Briefs, Notes, Reports & Videos
In June 2025, MoneyRadar publications highlighted a slowdown in the global economy without immediate recession, but with a persistent risk of stagflation in the United States, exacerbated by Donald Trump's trade policies. The Federal Reserve adopted a cautious approach, anticipating gradual rate cuts. In July and August 2025, the probability of a US recession sharply decreased, with the economy showing resilience and reassuring disinflation, leading to a 'soft landing' scenario. However, the fragility of the Eurozone and structural problems in China remained concerns. From September 2025, the threat of stagflation intensified, mainly due to Trump's tariffs and structural inflationary pressures. The Fed faced a complex dilemma between employment and inflation, under political pressure. The 2026 outlook, established in November 2025, confirmed a soft landing in the United States thanks to AI-related productivity gains, and a gradual recovery in Europe, but within an unstable global context. The Fed was perceived as a market savior in December 2025, its dovish communication and rising US unemployment paving the way for rate cuts. The beginning of 2026 was marked by an escalation of geopolitical risks with the Iran-Israel war in March, causing a supply shock on raw materials and a rise in inflation, threatening global growth and leading to underperformance in US markets. In April 2026, markets remained uncertain, facing a new paradigm of lower growth and higher inflation, requiring strategic diversification and increased investor caution.
Iran-Israel War: Impact on Global Inflation and Growth, and Underperformance of US Markets
The war with Iran triggers a major supply shock on oil and gas, increasing the risks of inflation and global economic slowdown, and leading to a notable underperformance of US indices.
Persistent Market Uncertainty and New Inflation/Growth Paradigm
Markets remain highly uncertain, characterized by a new paradigm of lower growth and higher inflation, which requires investors to maintain caution and strategic diversification.
Methodology
Analysis of market sentiment, assessment of central bank expectations, and proposal of strategic asset allocation within the PEA framework.
Key findings
- Markets remain volatile due to persistent geopolitical tensions (Iran, Israel-Lebanon).
- 'FOMO' (fear of missing out on the rebound) pushes investors to buy back quickly after dips ('dip buyers').
- A new paradigm has set in: a more inflationary environment with less growth.
- Central banks face a world where the room for maneuver to cut rates is reduced.
- Portfolios are well-calibrated to withstand and benefit from rebounds.
Investor implications
Postpone major recalibrations of strategic allocation (fewer equities, more safety) until visibility improves. Maintain current diversification. Consider coupling a PEA portfolio with a CTO for gold, global defense, and emerging market bonds. Explore PEA ETFs on strategic autonomy and European infrastructure.
Understanding Economic Cycles and Macroeconomic Shocks
This ebook provides a fundamental methodology for understanding global economic cycles and macroeconomic shocks, essential for developing a rigorous investment strategy.
Global Economy: Slowdown Without Recession and Stagflation Risk in the United States
The global economy is slowing but avoiding recession, while the United States aims for a soft landing despite persistent stagflation risks linked to trade policies.
United States: Recession Probability Declining and Reassuring Disinflation
The probability of a US recession has sharply declined thanks to resilient growth and continuous disinflation, while the Eurozone shows timid signs of recovery.
US Economy: Soft Landing Confirmed Despite Slowdown
The US economy is in a soft landing phase, with the global growth cycle resuming after trade tensions, but European markets show persistent fragility.
Stagflation Threat: Trump 2.0 and the Fed's Dilemma
Stagflation fears are intensifying due to rising prices and slowing growth, primarily driven by Donald Trump's trade policies, creating a complex dilemma for the Fed.
2026 Outlook: Soft Landing in the United States and European Recovery in an Unstable World
The US economy is expected to continue a soft landing in 2026, driven by AI productivity gains, while Europe experiences a gradual recovery, all within an unstable global environment.
The Fed as Market Savior: Rising Unemployment and Accelerated US Potential Growth
The Fed's dovish communication and rising US unemployment reassured markets, confirming the acceleration of US potential growth, while Europe continues its gradual recovery despite new hopes for peace in Ukraine.