Chronology·15 articles·2025 – 2026
Inflation: Global Dynamics, Central Bank Responses, and Investment Strategies
Updated 2026-04-01·Source: MoneyRadar Briefs, Notes, Reports & Videos
From June to November 2025, the inflation discourse was dominated by reassuring signals, particularly in the United States. May 2025 data showed a slowdown in US core inflation, reinforcing the idea of a soft landing and paving the way for potential Fed rate cuts. However, fears of stagflation began to emerge as early as September 2025, fueled by Donald Trump's trade policies, perceived as productivity-destructive and cost-generating. Europe, meanwhile, struggled to see significant disinflation, keeping the ECB in a more cautious stance than the Fed. The beginning of 2026 confirmed the global disinflationary trend, with a calming of real estate and services inflation, allowing central banks to remain accommodative and supporting risk appetite. However, this calm was abruptly interrupted in March 2026 by the outbreak of war in Iran. This conflict immediately rekindled inflationary fears, notably via a shock to oil and raw material prices, and brought the stagflation scenario back to the forefront. Markets reacted with risk aversion, with bonds penalized by the anticipation of rate hikes in the face of inflation, and emerging assets being particularly vulnerable. In April 2026, the war in Iran continued to cause a significant inflationary shock, with lasting consequences for global economies. The stagflation scenario strengthened, with Europe and Asia particularly exposed to rising energy costs. Investors had to adapt to this new reality, favoring resilient assets like the dollar and commodities, while seeking rebound opportunities in case of de-escalation, although the prospects for Fed rate cuts were severely compromised by this new inflationary environment.
Global Disinflation and Accommodative Policies in 2026
The disinflationary cycle continues slowly but surely in 2026, with a soft landing of inflation on both sides of the Atlantic, allowing central banks to remain accommodative and supporting risk appetite.
War in Iran: Inflationary Shock and Resistance Strategies
The outbreak of war in Iran will lead to an inflationary shock lasting several months, requiring increased exposure to commodities and bonds to withstand uncertainty.
War in Iran: Return of Stagflation Risk and Investor Guide
The war in Iran brings back the risk of stagflation (rising inflation and falling growth), making key interest rate hikes more probable and requiring a strategic adjustment of portfolios.
Inflationary Shock and Stagflation Scenario Reinforced by the War in Iran
The war in Iran continues to cause an inflationary shock that reinforces the stagflation scenario, particularly in Europe and Asia, and makes finding an urgent exit strategy for the United States.
Investing in an Inflationary and Uncertain Context via the PEA
In the current context of uncertainty and inflation, investors must remain cautious and consider adapted investment strategies, such as integrating resilient assets via a PEA coupled with a CTO.
Methodology
Analysis of the current market situation (volatility, 'FOMO', 'dip buyers') and proposal of optimized investment strategies for the PEA in an inflationary context.
Key findings
- The context remains uncertain, with volatile markets but active 'dip buyers' and a bullish sentiment among major asset management firms.
- The PEA universe offers tax advantages but has limitations in terms of diversification (no gold, safe bonds, comprehensive global strategies).
- European infrastructure is attractive in an inflationary context due to its 'pricing power' and the visibility of its order books.
Investor implications
Wait for clearer signs before recalibrating strategic allocation. Couple a PEA portfolio (80% equity ETFs) with a CTO (20% Gold ETFs) for optimal diversification against inflation.
Understanding Inflation in the Global Economy for Asset Allocation
A deep understanding of global economic dynamics, including inflation and the role of central banks, is essential for informed investment decisions.
Reassuring US Inflation and Implications for the Fed
US core inflation data for May 2025 is reassuring, suggesting a possible continuation of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, which is favorable for markets.
Geopolitical Risks and Inflationary Fears by End of 2025
Geopolitical risks, particularly a trade escalation or a flare-up in the Middle East, could rekindle inflationary fears and lead to a sharp rise in interest rates.
Continued US Disinflation and Soft Landing
The disinflationary dynamic in the United States is confirmed for the fifth consecutive month in August 2025, supporting a soft landing scenario for the US economy and a flexible Fed.
A Trump-Putin Peace Deal Would Reduce Inflationary Risk
A potential peace agreement between Trump and Putin could lead to a decline in energy and agricultural commodity prices, thereby reducing inflationary risk.
Stagflation Threat and Financial Strategy Facing Trump 2.0
The risk of stagflation (weak growth and high inflation) intensifies, mainly due to Trump's trade policies, complicating the Fed's task and requiring an adaptation of investment strategies.
Persistent Inflation and Stagflation Fears in Fall 2025
Inflation remains above 2% on both sides of the Atlantic, maintaining stagflation fears without strengthening them, and hopes for a quick peace in Ukraine have vanished.
Market Pause Despite Tensions, Stable Inflation
Financial markets could enter a 'pause' phase by the end of 2025, with performance stabilizing but upside potential maintained for 2026, suggesting inflation is under control.
Reassuring US Inflation but Fed in the Fog
US inflation data for November 2025 is reassuring, but the Fed remains uncertain about its policy, prompting a tactical adjustment of portfolios towards greater security.
Divergence of Monetary Policies Facing US and Eurozone Inflation
US statistics confirm the Fed's need to cut rates due to rising unemployment, while persistent inflation in the Eurozone prevents the ECB from doing the same.