Chronology·15 articles·2025 – 2026
Global Geopolitics: Analysis of Conflicts, Trade Policies, and Their Impacts on Financial Markets
Updated 2026-04-01·Source: MoneyRadar Briefs, Notes, Reports & Videos
An analysis of MoneyRadar publications reveals a chronology of geopolitical concerns and their impacts on financial markets. In September 2025, stagflation fears were fueled by Donald Trump's trade policies, and hopes for peace in Ukraine proved premature. Trump's actions, including "shutdown" threats and new taxes, continued to dominate attention in October, although undervalued investment opportunities were identified in this uncertain context. November 2025 saw a US-China agreement, albeit shaky, bring a temporary warming of relations, but the outlook for 2026 remained one of an unstable world with persistent geopolitical tensions. In early 2026, despite the resurgence of risks (notably US interventionism in Venezuela and the Trump doctrine), markets continued to advance, reinforcing strategic choices in gold, defense, and Asia. However, in February 2026, Trump's aggressive pre-election actions, particularly his attacks on the Fed and Europe, pushed tensions to a point of no return, leading to increased risk aversion and significant portfolio adjustments. The culmination of this period was the outbreak of war in Iran in March 2026, with the death of the Ayatollah and the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz. This event caused a major energy shock, amplifying stagflation fears and necessitating a revised investment guide focused on resilience. In April 2026, the United States' desperate search for an exit strategy from Iran, combined with Iran's refusal to negotiate, prolonged uncertainty, exacerbating stagflation risks for energy-dependent economies and requiring continuous strategic adjustments for investors.
Geopolitics and Trump Doctrine: Strengthening Strategic Assets
The resurgence of geopolitical risk and the Trump doctrine reinforce strategic asset choices such as gold, defense, and Asia, while the US growth cycle remains robust.
Mega-trends 2026: Geopolitics and Military as Investment Axes
Geopolitical and military trends are identified as key investment themes for 2026 and beyond, alongside other structural changes like AI and demographic shifts.
Precious Metals: Safe Havens Against Market Volatility
Despite extreme volatility, gold remains a reliable safe-haven asset with strong fundamentals, while other precious metals offer diversification potential.
Global Disorder: Trump Pushes the Envelope Too Far
Donald Trump's aggressive pre-election actions, particularly against the Fed and Europe, are pushing geopolitical tensions to a point of no return, leading to increased risk aversion.
War in Iran: A New Investor Guide Becomes Essential
The war in Iran, with its potential for prolonged conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, necessitates a new investment guide focused on resilience in the face of stagflation and energy shocks.
War in Iran: Maximum Uncertainty and Resilience Strategies
The war in Iran, combined with persistent 'Trump taxes', creates maximum uncertainty, forcing portfolios to prioritize gold, commodities, and defense for resilience.
War in Iran: Desperate Search for an Exit Strategy
The United States is desperately seeking a resolution to the war in Iran, but Iran's refusal to negotiate prolongs uncertainty, pushing the global economy towards stagflation.
Uncertain Context: Strategic Adjustments for PEA Portfolios
The uncertain geopolitical context, particularly the conflict in Iran, demands a cautious strategic allocation, even within the constraints of a PEA, to balance risk and opportunity.
Methodology
Fundamental and systemic analysis, flexible and opportunistic allocation, multi-asset and multi-strategy diversification, disciplined and reactive approach.
Key findings
- Markets show FOMO and 'dip buyers' are active, providing a safety cushion.
- Large asset managers are optimistic about indices and gold, believing the worst of the crisis has passed.
- The PEA offers limited diversification (no gold, safe bonds, limited global strategies), suggesting an 80% PEA equities / 20% CTO gold approach.
Investor implications
Await clearer signals before recalibrating strategic allocation (likely fewer equities, more safety), explore PEA-eligible ETFs for European sovereignty and infrastructure.
Stagflation & Financial Strategy Facing Trump 2.0
Donald Trump's trade policies are a major factor fueling stagflation fears and complicating the Fed's task.
A Tense Autumn Start: Geopolitics' Impact on Markets
Geopolitical tensions, particularly hopes for peace in Ukraine and the US growth cycle, are creating nervousness in financial markets.
Donald Trump and the Shutdown: Impacts on Financial Markets
Donald Trump's political actions, including a potential 'shutdown' and new taxes, continue to influence market sentiment, although the immediate impact of the 'shutdown' is deemed limited.
Investment Opportunities in an Undervalued Market
Despite market highs, specific sectors and geographical areas remain undervalued, offering diversification and growth opportunities for 2026.
US-China Agreement: Warming Relations and Tactical Adjustments
A US-China agreement, though precarious, signals a warming of relations, prompting tactical adjustments in portfolios to secure profits and reduce risks.
2026 Outlook: An Unstable World and Geopolitical Challenges
The year 2026 is shaping up to be unstable with multiple geopolitical, economic, and financial challenges, requiring diversification and measured choices.
Hopes for Peace in Ukraine and Tactical Fed Adjustments
Despite Trump's renewed hopes for peace in Ukraine, lasting peace remains distant, while the Fed's communication on rate cuts stimulates market rebound.