Chronology·15 articles·2025 – 2026
Global Macro Strategy and Geopolitical Impacts on Financial Markets
Updated 2026-04-01·Source: MoneyRadar Briefs, Notes, Reports & Videos
The analysis begins in August 2025 with an assessment of a potential peace agreement between Trump and Putin, a scenario deemed unlikely but already partially priced in by markets, leading to adjustments in European assets, commodities, and defense. In September 2025, markets show nervousness due to high valuations and long-term rates, while hopes for peace in Ukraine fade, and the threat of stagflation, exacerbated by Trump's policies, prompts a reorientation of portfolios towards defensive assets and commodities. By the end of 2025, despite generally bullish markets and a shaky US-China agreement, a pause phase is anticipated, encouraging profit-taking and reducing risk exposure. The outlook for 2026 highlights an unstable world where diversification remains key, with opportunities in undervalued sectors (luxury, European tech) and structural themes (AI, defense, precious metals). In early 2026, the AI supercycle and disinflation support the stock market rally, strengthening the appeal of equities and gold, despite the resurgence of geopolitical risks. The outbreak of war in Iran in March 2026 marks a turning point, causing strong risk aversion and massive reallocations: emerging assets and Europe are weakened, while the United States, commodities, and defense prove more resilient. Publications from April 2026 show that the United States is seeking an exit from the conflict, with a growing risk of stagflation, but also rebound opportunities to seize, while highlighting the limitations of investing via a PEA (Equity Savings Plan) for optimal diversification without a CTO (Securities Account).
Identification of Mega-Trends for 2026 and Beyond and Investment Levers
Several structural 'mega-trends' offer investment opportunities for 2026 and beyond, ranging from AI to geopolitics, demographics, and energy transition.
The Stock Market Rally Continues in 2026 Despite Geopolitical Risks
2026 starts strong for global stock markets, driven by the AI supercycle and a resilient growth cycle, despite the resurgence of geopolitical risk and Trump's actions.
Precious Metals: Gold Remains a Safe-Haven Asset Despite Volatility
Despite high volatility and a recent correction, Gold remains a success story and a performing safe-haven asset, supported by strong structural demand and supply tensions.
War in Iran: Market Impacts and Investment Strategies
The outbreak of war in Iran shakes markets, with clear reallocations in favor of commodities, defense, and the dollar, and an increased risk of stagflation if the conflict persists.
Navigating Uncertainty Post-Outbreak of War in Iran
The war in Iran changes the game for markets, increasing uncertainty and volatility, but diversified portfolios with gold and commodities are better prepared to withstand it.
Seeking an Exit from the War in Iran and Rebound Opportunities
The United States is seeking an exit from the war in Iran, and although the market bottom may not yet be reached, détente remains the scenario to play, offering future buying and selling opportunities.
Optimizing Investment via PEA in an Uncertain Context
In an uncertain market context, it is possible to build a 100% PEA portfolio, but it will not be optimal without a complementary CTO to diversify into gold and other themes.
Methodology
Analysis of the constraints and opportunities of the PEA universe for ETFs, and proposal of typical portfolios and distribution strategies.
Key findings
- The PEA universe is limited for optimal diversification (no gold, no safe bonds, limited global strategies).
- Coupling a PEA (80% equities) and a CTO (20% gold) is recommended for better optimization.
- PEA opportunities exist in 'European Sovereignty' and 'European Infrastructure'.
Investor implications
Wait for more clarity before recalibrating strategic allocation, consider a PEA/CTO coupling, and explore 'European Sovereignty' and 'European Infrastructure' ETFs for the PEA.
Assessment of a Potential Trump-Putin Peace Agreement and its Market Impacts
The author is skeptical about a rapid peace agreement between Trump and Putin but notes that markets are already partially integrating this scenario.
Tense Autumn Season and Disappointment Over Ukraine Peace Hopes
Financial markets are nervous due to high valuations, rising long-term rates, and tensions in the US growth cycle, while hopes for peace in Ukraine are fading.
Threat of Stagflation and Strategic Playbook Against Trump 2.0
The risk of stagflation (weak growth, high inflation) is increasing, particularly due to Trump's trade policies, requiring an adjustment of investment strategies.
Identification of Investment Opportunities in Undervalued Markets
Despite generally high markets, there are undervalued investment pockets offering catch-up potential for 2026, provided one is selective and contrarian.
Stock Market Rallies and Caution Amid US Shutdown
Markets are experiencing new stock rallies and highs, but a 'pause' phase is expected by the end of 2025, with continued confidence in US and Asian equities, and caution regarding Europe.
Tactical Portfolio Adjustment Amid Bull Markets and US-China Agreement
Given bullish markets and an already priced-in US-China agreement, it is time to adjust strategy by securing profits and reducing risk exposure for year-end.
2026 Outlook: Navigating an Unstable World with Diversification
Despite the ongoing correction and an uncertain environment for 2026, it is crucial to stay the course and diversify investments, without anticipating a prolonged 'bear market'.
Europe in the Stock Market: Favorable Momentum but Persistent Structural Weaknesses
Despite favorable momentum at the end of 2025, Europe's structural weaknesses will persist in 2026, requiring a very selective approach to investing in the continent.