Chronology·5 articles·2025 – 2026
The US Dollar: Its Safe-Haven Role Amid Trump's Policies and Geopolitical Shocks
Updated 2026-03-01·Source: MoneyRadar Briefs, Notes, Reports & Videos
The status of the US dollar as a safe haven was profoundly re-evaluated during the period analyzed. In June 2025, publications highlighted a weakening of its traditional role due to Donald Trump's policies, notably his preference for a weaker dollar and the unpredictability of his decisions, which introduced a risk premium on US debt. The dollar was then perceived as a tactical asset rather than a defensive pillar, despite the persistence of American exceptionalism supporting US equity markets. Over the summer of 2025, the dollar's decline continued, even as the resilience of the US economy and geopolitical détente (Trump's agreements) favored US equity markets. However, significant risks weighed on the dollar and US assets, such as budgetary tensions in the United States, a potentially wait-and-see Federal Reserve, or political interference, which could exacerbate its depreciation and investor distrust. In March 2026, facing the outbreak of a war in Iran, the dollar surprisingly regained its resilient safe-haven status. Benefiting from US energy independence and a renewed global risk aversion, it was the only major currency to advance, reversing the underperformance trend of previous months and demonstrating its ability to act as a safe harbor in contexts of major geopolitical crisis, despite structural and political challenges.
The Dollar, a Resilient Safe Haven Amid War in Iran
Amid the war in Iran, the dollar proves to be a resilient asset and a safe haven, reversing the underperformance trend of previous months.
Methodology
Analysis of the impact of the Iran conflict on financial markets, asset classes (equities, bonds, commodities, currencies), and sectors, with conflict duration scenarios.
Key findings
- The dollar is the only currency to resist and even advance, benefiting from its safe-haven status and US energy independence.
- Global equity and bond markets are broadly declining, but US assets are more resilient than emerging markets or Europe.
- Inflationary fears linked to rising energy prices are prompting central banks to consider rate hikes, negatively impacting bonds.
Investor implications
Maintain exposure to the United States, commodities, and defense, while preparing for sharp adjustments in case of de-escalation or prolongation of the conflict.
Re-evaluation of the Dollar's Role as a Safe Haven
The dollar's role as a safe haven is weakened by current US policy, making it more of a tactical asset than a defensive foundation.
US Exceptionalism Versus Trump's Impact on the Dollar
Despite the partial weakening of the dollar and Treasuries' safe-haven status due to Trump's policy, American exceptionalism supports the outperformance of US equity markets.
Dollar Declines Despite US Resilience and Geopolitical Détente
The resilience of the US economy and geopolitical détente favor US equity markets, but the dollar continues to decline, raising questions about its future trajectory.
Risks for the Dollar and US Assets by End of 2025
Several potential 'black swans,' particularly US budgetary tensions and a wait-and-see Fed, threaten to depreciate the dollar and US bonds by the end of 2025.